WHAT 2011 OUGHT TO, COULD, HOPEFULLY WON’T BRING
The Green Tech Wish List for 2011; What we hope, expect and dread for 2011.
December 31, 2010 (Greentech Media)
"…Things We’d Like to See Happen in Green Technology [in 2011]…[1] The U.S. Establishes Long-Term Energy Policies…A national policy, ideally, would include carbon regulations, but tax credits and renewable power standards would be a tremendous help…[2] Time-of-Use Pricing Begins to Spread…Time-of-use pricing would create a market-based incentive to conserve…Utilities could finally justify their smart meter investments…
"…[3] Coal Peaks. Rising demand, particularly from China, could mean the end of cheap coal. Sustained hikes could change the renewable debate…[4] Green Tech Stops Being a Dirty Word. In 2010, Mississippi gave $169 million in loans and grants to three green startups to build plants in the state. Indiana is recruiting electric car companies. Even in red states, green is a job machine…[5] The Holy Grail in Storage Appears…It’s the Google opportunity."
There is time to develop energy storage. (click to enlarge)
"Things We Think Will Happen in 2011…[1] Utilities Become Hip…But utilities reap massive profits, have the ability to shape [the future]…A growing cadre of the best and brightest will flock there…[2] Solar Expands…18 gigawatts of panels in 2011 (compared to 170 megawatts in 2000)…the magic $1-per-watt mark in manufacturing…Grid parity could be achieved in parts of Italy and Japan…[3] Electric Cars Are a Hit…Today’s better batteries will prevent the Chevy Volt from becoming the new EV1…
"…[4] Chinese Becomes Familiar…Chinese companies…will try to establish brand names, like their Japanese and South Korean counterparts…[5] AT&T, Google and Comcast Become Utilities…[6] Merger Mania Grips Green. Acquisitions, particularly in solar, lighting and efficiency, will continue. BrightSource Energy, MiaSolé and a few others may even attempt IPOs…[7] The Department of Defense Becomes a Market Maker…Critics might complain about bloated budgets and inefficiencies, but DoD buying is how the semiconductor industry took flight…"
Lots of Chinese company names to learn on this list (click to enlarge)
"Things We Hope Won’t Happen…[1] Oil drops to $60 a barrel…[which] could whack the beleaguered biofuels industry…[2] Clashes Over Wind and Solar Farms…[would cause more] delays and negotiations that [reduce] size…[3] LED Bulbs Flop. Prices could drop to $20 or less in 2011 from $90 in 2008. But lighting distributors and electricians are still getting their head around the concept and consumers blanch at spending…
"…[4] VCs Retreat to the Sidelines…[5] High-Profile Companies Backed by Government Loans Sink…[6] The Public Gets Climate Fatigue…[7] The Tax Credits Lapse Again."
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